Friday, January 19, 2007

Oscar Nomination Predictions

by Jackrabbit Slim
Okay, here goes. These are my predictions for the Oscar nominations, which will be announced on Tuesday.

BEST PICTURE

Babel
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen

Same five as I had in December. Only question is whether Letters from Iwo Jima dislodges LMS.

BEST DIRECTOR

Bill Condon, Dreamgirls
Stephen Frears, The Queen
Clint Eastwood, Letters from Iwo Jima
Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu, Babel
Martin Scorsese, The Departed

I’ve bumped Pedro for Clint. Paul Greengrass could get in, I’m more doubtful of the Little Miss Sunshine duo, even though they got a DGA.

BEST ACTOR

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Departed
Ryan Gosling, Half-Nelson
Peter O'Toole, Venus
Will Smith, Pursuit of Happyness
Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland

Same five as before. Four are locks, Gosling is still my choice, but this is a very weak year for this category and could allow for an oddball nomination like Baron Cohen, Craig, or Eckhart

BEST ACTRESS

Penelope Cruz, Volver
Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal
Helen Mirren, The Queen
Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winslet, Little Children

No changes. The entire world is picking these five. Very surprised if someone else breaks in.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine
Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
Jack Nicholson, The Departed
Brad Pitt, Babel
Michael Sheen, The Queen

The most wide-open acting category. Anyone of ten guys could in, and Murphy is the only lock. Haley, Walhberg, Hounsou, shit even Ben Affleck stands a chance.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Adrianna Barraza, Babel
Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal
Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine
Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Rinko Kikuchi, Babel

I’ve bumped Emma Thompson for the nanny from Babel. Feel pretty confident with these five.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Babel
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen
Letters from Iwo Jima
United 93

Identical to WGA except Letters instead of Stranger Than Fiction, Volver and Pan’s Labyrinth also possibilities

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Children of Men
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Little Children
Notes on a Scandal

Children might be wishing. Dreamgirls doesn’t deserve it, and sometimes the writers spot bullshit (like Titanic). Borat probably left out.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Canada, Water
Denmark, After the Wedding
Germany, The Lives of Others
Mexico, Pan’s Labyrinth
Spain, Volver

The Academy was helpful and whittled a list of 61 down to 9. Hard to imagine a Paul Verhoeven film getting in here (Black Book).

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Deliver Us From Evil
An Inconvenient Truth
Iraq in Fragments
Jesus Camp
The War Tapes

The Dixie Chicks get left out.

ANIMATED FEATURE

Cars
Happy Feet
Monster House


Edited to reflect only three nominees. Thanks for the info, Nick

VISUAL EFFECTS

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest
Poseidon
Superman Returns

Also eligible: Casino Royale, Eragon, Night at the Museum, X-Men

MAKEUP

Apocalypto
Pan’s Labyrinth
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest

Also eligible: Click, The Prestige, Santa Clause 3 (!) X-Men

COSTUMES

Curse of the Golden Flower
Dreamgirls
The Illusionist
Marie-Antoinette
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Apocalypto
Children of Men
The Departed
Dreamgirls
The Illusionist

The ASC nominated The Black Dahlia and The Good Shepherd, but I figure bigger films will bounce them.

EDITING

Babel
The Departed
Dreamgirls
The Queen
United 93

ART DIRECTION

Children of Men
Curse of the Golden Flower
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest

SOUND

Blood Diamond
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Flags of Our Fathers
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest

Always the toughest category, because every friggin’ movie has sound!

SOUND EFFECTS EDITING

Cars
Flags of Our Fathers
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest

The Academy usually announces a short list of seven for the bakeoff, but haven’t heard anything yet.

MUSICAL SCORE

Apocalypto
Babel
The DaVinci Code
Notes on a Scandal
The Painted Veil

SONG

Bobby, “Never Gonna Break My Faith”
Dreamgirls, “Listen”
Dreamgirls, “Patience”
Happy Feet, “Song of My Heart”
An Inconvenient Truth, “I Need to Wake Up”

12 Comments:

Blogger Brian said...

If those do indeed turn out to be the big 5, it will be a lot like two years ago, when I was OK with all 5 movies but not really excited about any of them.

Guess I'd have to go with The Queen.

1/19/2007 10:36:00 AM  
Blogger Jackrabbit Slim said...

I would vote for The Queen as well. I don't think Dreamgirls belongs, but it's an unstoppable force right now, and I have the sneaking suspicion it might win.

1/19/2007 10:37:00 AM  
Blogger Brian said...

Although, I take that back. Upon several seconds of further reflection, I can't really say that I'm OK with Dreamgirls.

1/19/2007 10:37:00 AM  
Blogger Count Olaf said...

I like Titanic.

1/19/2007 11:00:00 AM  
Blogger Jackrabbit Slim said...

I liked Titanic, too, but it had a dreadful script. That dialogue sucked very hard. Even now I can hear Billy Zane uttering lines that would make Snidely Whiplash blush.

1/19/2007 11:47:00 AM  
Blogger Brian said...

I think 'bad dialogue' is a different thing somewhat than 'bad script'. There are a lot of things about the Titanic script that I think are pretty great, first and foremost the way Cameron was able to show you the whole ship without making it seem like that's what he was doing.

1/19/2007 12:02:00 PM  
Blogger Nick said...

I like Titanic.

Surely not for it's dialogue and 'plot' twists?

Hard to imagine a Paul Verhoeven film getting in here (Black Book).

I find that easy. A WW2 drama-thriller with some connection to jewish resistance (which I believe it was about)? It's After the Wedding and Water I'm doubtful about. I think Days of Glory has a shot, too. Would be great if Pan's got this.


ANIMATED FEATURE
Can go up to five.


I heard not, due to Arthur & The Invisibles being under 75% animated, thereby being below Academy requirements.
http://www.darkhorizons.com/news07/070108k.php

I’ve bumped Pedro for Clint.

I'd bump Bill Condon, just for the hell of it. The film's well made, but not exactly a work of art.

I’ve bumped Emma Thompson for the nanny from Babel.

One of the Babel women is not getting a nomination. I'd bet Barrazza.

1/19/2007 12:07:00 PM  
Blogger Jackrabbit Slim said...

True, but dialogue is a pretty important part, and I think that's what cost him a nomination.

1/19/2007 12:07:00 PM  
Blogger jaydro said...

I hated Titanic. And you're talking to someone who thinks the original Airport is a classic, so it's not like I hate the genre.

Hey, Jackrabbit, don't you think Children of Men might get a sound and/or sound effects editing nod?

1/19/2007 12:22:00 PM  
Blogger Count Olaf said...

I like Titanic as a whole. Some lines are less memorable than others and the plot has many contrivances that move the story along, but I like the package as a whole. And it cemented my affinity for DiCaprio (after Romeo + Juliet) so that I'll now see any movie he makes (though many have been bad since then I've yet to see his two from this past year)



While everyone's busy talking about who they've "bumped" I've been watching the "producer's cut" of last night's office episode.
Very funny...fills in the gaps.
Watch over at: http://www.nbc.com/The_Office

1/19/2007 12:27:00 PM  
Blogger Jackrabbit Slim said...

Jaydro--I hope so. I based my sound nominations on the Cinema Audio Society nominations, which usally match up about 4/5, but Children of Men didn't get tapped. Their five: Dreamgirls, Pirates, Flags, Babel, Blood Diamond.

1/19/2007 12:29:00 PM  
Blogger Jackrabbit Slim said...

Nick--ah, Black Book is about World War II? I may have to reassess.

1/19/2007 12:30:00 PM  

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