Monday, November 27, 2006

It's Getting to Be That Time of Year...

by Jackrabbit Slim
for Oscar talk! I know some of you don't give a shit, and it seems that every sentient being has their own Oscar prediction web site, but what the hell, here's my early pics (I refuse to join the circle jerk of those who predict the day after the previous ceremony). Just about everything has been seen by some critics. This will no doubt be revised after critics awards and Golden Globe noms come out.

PICTURE

Babel
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen

DIRECTOR

Pedro Almodovar, Volver
Bill Condon, Dreamgirls
Stephen Frears, The Queen
Alejando Gonzalez Innaritu, Babel
Martin Scorsese, The Departed


ACTOR

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Departed
Ryan Gosling, Half-Nelson
Peter O'Toole, Venus
Will Smith, Pursuit of Happyness
Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland

ACTRESS

Penelope Cruz, Volver
Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal
Helen Mirren, The Queen
Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winslet, Little Children

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine
Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
Jack Nicholson, The Departed
Brad Pitt, Babel
Michael Sheen, The Queen

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal
Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine
Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Rinko Kikuchi, Babel
Emma Thompson, Stranger Than Fiction

Note these are not my personal choices, just one man's inconsequential prognostication. Discuss or ignore to your heart's content!

11 Comments:

Blogger Brian said...

This list seems reasonable enough. I have to say, though, that it doesn't make for a particularly consequential Oscars. I don't think there's a great film in the 5 Picture nominees (with Dreamgirls pending, of course), but nothing bad either.

I keep wishing for one great movie this year, but hasn't happened yet, and time is fast running out. Lots of good, but no great.

11/27/2006 02:28:00 PM  
Blogger Jackrabbit Slim said...

Right now my favorite is The Queen. I'm unlikely to find a flashy extravaganza like Dreamgirls to be my favorite film ot the year, but I'll keep an open mind. Certainly the most fun I've had this year has been The Departed.

11/27/2006 02:54:00 PM  
Blogger Brian said...

I think the best film to be released this year is Jean-Pierre Melville's Army of Shadows. But, of course, it's not eligible for Oscar consideration on account of it being 37 years old.

As for this year's films, I'd probably say The Queen as well, which pains me. Not that I didn't like the film - I really did - but it seems like there should be something better than that in any given year.

I'm not saying it's a weak year, exactly, because, as I said earlier, there's a lot of good to very good out there; maybe even more than usual. But there is a void at the top.

Still more to come, though. Children of Men looks promising.

11/27/2006 04:33:00 PM  
Anonymous Nick said...

(I refuse to join the circle jerk of those who predict the day after the previous ceremony).

Hey! This make me a circle jerk?

That's a more than reasonable list, considering how things stand currently. There's usually some kind of left-fielder, and you seem to have chosen Kikuchi, which I don't really see happening. I thought she was goo, but nothing standout.

I'm not really sure what my favorite this year has been. Best thing I saw recently was the Kingdom of Heaven Director's Cut, but that can't really count.

I'm still holding out for The Departed, The Prestige, The Fountain, Pan's Labyrinth, Little Miss Sunshine, Harsh Times and Children of Men to deliver what's been missing this year.

11/28/2006 09:44:00 AM  
Blogger Jackrabbit Slim said...

I think either Kikuchi or Barazza will get a nom from Babel, maybe even both, but Kikuchi played A: someone with a handicap, and B: went full frontal. That's got to be worth a lot of points.

11/28/2006 09:58:00 AM  
Anonymous Nick said...

Kikuchi played A: someone with a handicap, and B: went full frontal. That's got to be worth a lot of points.

A very true and pretty funny point. Yet also almost as sad as Dreamgirls being the presumptive winner. What is it with these musicals?

11/28/2006 10:28:00 AM  
Blogger Jackrabbit Slim said...

Well, Chicago is the only musical to get nominated for Best Picture in a long time. After it won, it seems that every Broadway hit that is turned into a film is the presumed front-runner. But Phantom of the Opera, Rent, and The Producers were all duds. Which is why I'm holding off anointing Dreamgirls. Will Dave Poland announce next year that Hairspray is the film to beat?

11/28/2006 10:47:00 AM  
Anonymous Nick said...

Will Dave Poland announce next year that Hairspray is the film to beat?

Those pictures of Travolta have given me nightmares like nothing else this year.

11/28/2006 11:24:00 AM  
Blogger jaydro said...

Note these are not my personal choices, just one man's inconsequential prognostication.

And yet you left out any nomination for Flags of Our Fathers? Unlikely, I'd say, no matter how much you hated it.

11/29/2006 07:27:00 PM  
Blogger jaydro said...

Oh, shit, never mind what I said--I just noticed that Letters from Iwo Jima is now getting an Oscar-bait late December release. That could definitely throw a monkey wrench in the works. I still wish they'd done a simultaneous release, but I guess people remember how well that worked for Kiss....

11/29/2006 07:34:00 PM  
Blogger Jackrabbit Slim said...

I have Flags as sixth or seventh for Best Picture. I'm least sure of Babel, which is pretty obtuse for the typical Academy voter. You can't count out Clint. Have no idea what Letters will do in all this.

11/30/2006 07:05:00 AM  

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